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101.
Philip G. Pugh 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(1):25-37
This paper, intended to stimulate debate, suggests that we are at a turning point in the history of the UK military aerospace industry. It argues that there is urgent need for a fresh vision as to how the UK military aerospace industry can both prosper and make its maximum contribution to the defence of Britain. Further, the resulting plans and policies must emphasise the robustness of defence capabilities in a future in which the only thing we can be certain is that it will be very different from the present – especially whenever defence most matters. 相似文献
102.
Christos Kollias 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(2):189-204
This paper investigates the causality issue between military expenditure and growth in the case of Turkey, a strategically located developing country, for the period 1954–1993. Results reported herein reveal the absence of any causal ordering between the variables in question. 相似文献
103.
Selami Sezgin 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(4):381-409
This paper provides a country survey of the Turkish defence economy. Turkey is a member of NATO alliance and is strategically located between Europe and Middle East. Moreover, Turkey has a high defence burden and high economic growth. The first part of the survey presents a brief economic background of Turkey, its armed forces, the defence industry, its modernisation and trends in Turkish defence expenditure. The rest of the paper focuses on the relationships between defence spending and economic growth. The effect of defence spending on economic growth is econometrically estimated using a supply side model. Both externality effects and the size effect of defence spending are estimated for Turkey. The study concludes that defence expenditure stimulates economic growth while externalities from the defence sector to the rest of economy are negative for Turkey. 相似文献
104.
J. Paul Dunne 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(5-6):427-441
A large literature has used tests for Granger (1969) non‐causality, GNC, to examine the interaction of military spending with the economy. Such tests answer a specific although quite limited question: can one reject the null hypothesis that one variable does not help predict another? If one can reject, there is said to be Granger causality, GC. Although the limitations of GNC tests are well known, they are often not emphasised in the applied literature and so may be forgotten. This paper considers the econometric and methodological issues involved and illustrates them with data for the US and other countries. There are three main issues. First, the tests may not be informative about the substantive issue, the interaction of military expenditure and the economy, since Granger causality does not correspond to the usual notion of economic causality. To determine the relationship of the two notions of causality requires an identified structural model. Second, the tests are very sensitive to specification. GNC testing is usually done in the context of a vector autoregression, VAR, and the test results are sensitive to the variables and deterministic terms included in the VAR, lag length, sample or observation window used, treatment of integration and cointegration and level of significance. Statistical criteria may not be very informative about these choices. Third, since the parameters are not structural, the test results may not be stable over different time periods or different countries. 相似文献
105.
P. G. Pugh 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(1):39-57
It is intrinsic to the nature of military competition that the unit acquisition costs of defence systems rise generation by generation. Traditional “bottom‐up” methods of cost‐estimating cannot meet the increasing demands for extensive studies of many options before commencing design and, while “top‐down” estimating techniques are an improvement, in particular by reducing the time required for preparing estimates, they also are inadequate to meet current requirements. A new method has been devised, therefore, further developing “top‐down” methods using Bayesian techniques to make best use of the available information, whether certain or uncertain, and its accuracy established by example. 相似文献
106.
This paper sets up a monetary endogenous growth model, and uses it to explain the ambiguous linkage between the military burden and the inflation rate observed in existing empirical studies. It is found that an expansion in the military burden has an ambiguous effect on the inflation rate depending upon the relative extent of two conflicting forces. More specifically, if the increase in the marginal benefit from holding money exceeds (falls short of) the increase in the marginal product of private capital, the inflation rate will rise (fall) in response. Moreover, it is found that an increase in the military burden will stimulate the balanced growth rate, confirming Benoit’s famous empirical findings. 相似文献
107.
Stella Karagianni 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(2):139-148
This paper uses linear and non‐linear Granger causality methods to determine the causal relationship between defense spending and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1949–2004. The innovative feature of this paper is that it provides evidence regarding the nonlinear causal dependence between military spending and economic growth in Turkey. The empirical results contribute to the empirical literature by indicating support for both linear and non‐linear causality between military expenditures and economic development and they may prove useful in theoretical and empirical research by regulators and policy makers. 相似文献
108.
分析了战时装备调配保障决策的特点,运用模糊聚类分析法对装备调配保障对象进行了分组和优先级排序,以此为基础,运用目标规划法构建了战时装备调配保障决策模型,最后,通过实例验证了模型的可行性和有效性. 相似文献
109.
110.
设计了新型半圆管形式的不锈钢板式换热器,对其作为太阳能光电热综合利用一体化系统集热组件的性能进行实验研究。通过新型集热光电热组件及光电组件系统的对比实验,研究该光电热组件在重庆地区夏季应用情况,分析其光电和光热特性。结果表明:在以晴朗为主的天气,半圆管形式的不锈钢板式光电热组件电热系统的电热性能与光电组件系统的相比较,前者的太阳能电池输出功率提高约26.48%,热利用效率提高23.70%以上,新型半圆管形式的光电热组件整体光电热(光电+光热)综合效率可达到25.70%,有效提高了光电热系统的综合效率。新型半圆管形式不锈钢板式换热器的换热面积增大,提高了换热效率,为太阳能光电热综合利用一体化系统在重庆等太阳辐射强度较小地区的应用提供了参考。 相似文献